Population: In 2004 Kenya’s population was estimated at 32,021,856, up from 28.7 million reported in the 1999 national census and from 15.3 million in the 1979 census. In 2004 the annual population growth rate was about 2 percent or less, with the lowest 2004 estimates at barely more than 1 percent. Kenya’s current population growth rate represents a dramatic fall from the early 1980s, when it reached 4 percent, the highest rate in the world. As of the end of 2001, Kenya was host to some 220,000 refugees from neighboring countries, including 145,000 from Somalia and 68,000 from Sudan (2004 estimates). Somewhat more than one-third of the population lives in urban areas, with the greatest concentration in Nairobi. The non-city-dwelling population is also heavily concentrated in areas of fertile land in the center and west of the country. In 2000 the population density was 53 people per square kilometer.

Demography: Kenya was the first sub-Saharan country to adopt a national family planning program and one of a small handful to undergo a demographic transition to much lower fertility. Since the late 1970s, contraceptive prevalence has doubled, and the total fertility rate in Kenya has fallen from 8.0 children per woman to about half that number. Current estimates on fertility range from 3.1 to 5 births per woman. Kenya now has a birthrate that is among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, at between 28 (2004 estimate) and 38 per 1,000. At the same time, according to 2004 estimates, life expectancy has fallen to about 44.9. Estimates place the death rate at 16.3 deaths/1,000 population (2004 estimate) and the infant mortality rate at 62 to 74 per 1,000 live births. The age structure of the population is very young, with 40 to 43 percent of the population under age 15, and only 2.9 percent 65 or older. The median age is 18.6 years.

Ethnic Groups and Languages: People of African descent make up about 97 percent of the population; they are divided into about 40 ethnic groups belonging to three linguistic families: Bantu, Cushitic, and Nilotic. Bantu-speaking Kenyans comprise three groups: western (Luhya), highlands (including the Kikuyu and the Kamba), and coastal Bantu (Mijikenda). The major groups of Nilotic speakers are the River-Lake (Luo), Highlands (Kalenjin), and Plains or Eastern (Masai). The Cushitic-speaking groups include the Oromo and Somali. The Kikuyu, who make up 22 percent of the population, constitute Kenya’s largest ethnic group. The next largest groups are the Luhya (14 percent), Luo (13 percent), Kalenjin (12 percent), and Kamba (11 percent). Additional groups include: Kisii (6 percent), Meru (6 percent), and other African (15 percent). Small numbers of people of Indian, Pakistani, and European descent live in the interior, and there are some Arabs along the coast. The official languages of Kenya are Swahili and English, with many indigenous languages from the three language families also spoken.

Religion: About three-quarters of Kenyans profess some form of Christianity, although fewer are affiliated with a church. About 40 to 45 percent of Kenyans are Protestant, while 30 percent are Roman Catholic. Estimates for the percentage of the population that adheres to indigenous beliefs and to Islam vary widely, with estimates of 10 to 25 percent for the former and 7 to 20 percent for Muslims. One percent are Hindus and Sikhs. The population includes very few professed atheists.

Education and Literacy: Estimates of the Kenyan literacy rate range between 75 and 85 percent, with the female rate about 10 points lower than the male. The education system, beset by non-enrollment and low completion rates, offers eight years of compulsory primary education, beginning at age six, four years of secondary school, and four years of university education. The language of instruction from the secondary stage onward is English. Primary enrollment in 2002 included 68 percent of children. This rate was down from nearly 100 percent in the 1980s prior to the introduction, under donor pressure, of user fees. The primary school completion rate in 2002 was less than one-half. Secondary school enrollment included only about 23 percent of the relevant age-group. Primary school enrollment has increased under the Kibaki government, which immediately fulfilled its campaign pledge to abolish user charges and special fees. The government offers universal free primary education, a change from earlier cost-sharing arrangements between the government and parents. Greater government expenditure on education in 2004⎯more than 8 percent of GDP and 30 percent of current government spending⎯promises to reverse the declining trend in educational standards, as well as to increase the fiscal deficit.

Kenya has five public universities and about twice that many private institutions of higher education. Since the 1980s, there has been a tremendous expansion in universities in response to high demand. The public universities are the University of Nairobi (founded in 1956); Kenyatta University (1972), in Nairobi; the Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (1981), near Nairobi; Egerton University (1939), near Nakuru; and Moi University (1984), outside Eldoret. The government also provides opportunities for higher education through several polytechnic institutes and several dozen teacher-training colleges.

Health: Tropical diseases, especially malaria, and tuberculosis have long been a public health problem in Kenya. In recent years, infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) also has become a severe problem. Estimates of the incidence of infection differ widely, with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) claiming in 2004 that more than 16 percent of adults in Kenya are infected, while the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) cites the much lower figure of 6.7 percent. Despite politically charged disputes over the numbers, however, the Kenyan government recently declared HIV/AIDS a national disaster. In 2004 the Kenyan Ministry of Health announced that HIV/AIDS had surpassed malaria and tuberculosis as the leading disease killer in the country. Thanks largely to AIDS, life expectancy in Kenya has dropped by more than a decade, to about 45 years. Between 1 and 2 million people are living with AIDS, and more than 70 people a day die of it. The prevalence rate for women is nearly twice that for men. The rate of orphanhood stands at about 11 percent. AIDS has contributed significantly to Kenya’s dismal ranking in the latest United Nations Development Programme Human Development Report, whose Human Development Index (HDI) score is an amalgam of gross domestic product (GDP) per head, figures for life expectancy, adult literacy, and school enrollment. The report ranked Kenya 148^th out of 177 countries on the HDI and pointed out that Kenya is one of the world’s six worst performers in infant mortality. Estimates of the infant mortality rate range from 62 to 74 deaths/1,000 live births. The maternal mortality ratio is also among the highest in the world, thanks in part to female genital cutting, illegal since 2001 for girls under 16.

Apart from major disease killers, Kenya has a serious problem with accidental death, specifically by motor vehicles. Kenya has the highest rate of road accidents in the world, with 510 fatal accidents per 100,000 vehicles (2004 estimate), as compared to second-ranked South Africa, with 260 fatalities, and the United Kingdom, with 20. In February 2004, in an attempt to improve Kenya’s appalling record, the government obliged the owners of the country’s 25,000 matutas (minibuses), the backbone of public transportation, to install new safety equipment on their vehicles. Investment in road projects also is planned.

Kenya’s health infrastructure suffers from urban-rural and regional imbalances, lack of investment, and a personnel shortage, with, for example, one doctor for 10,150 people (as of 2000).

Welfare: For several decades, Kenya has seen declining income per head and growing disparities of income and wealth. In 2000 the top decile of the population enjoyed 37.2 percent of income, while the lowest decile had only 2 percent. The number of people living below the poverty line (of US$1 per day) is estimated to have increased from 11.3 million (48.4 percent of the population) in 1990 to 17.1 million (55.4 percent of the population) in 2001. Despite high and growing levels of poverty, social protection is only now becoming a priority in Kenya. Hitherto, the country has not had social welfare or protection provisions that reach workers in both the formal and informal sectors. Plans are now underway to extend basic income replacement support measures and other protections to more workers. The Kenyan government is converting its existing 2.9 million-member National Social Security Fund (NSSF), a provident fund for private-sector workers, into a more comprehensive national social insurance pension plan. Under a draft NSSF Act Amendment Bill, eligibility will extend to any person with a monthly or seasonal income. The new benefits will include lifetime old-age, invalid, and survivors’ pensions, a maternity grant, and a funeral grant.

In addition, the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) eventually will be restructured to provide universal compulsory social health insurance coverage for every citizen. The new system, the National Social Health Insurance Scheme, will be implemented gradually, beginning in 2005. The International Labour Organization (ILO) will support the implementation process to be carried out jointly by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the German Development Agency (GTZ).