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WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
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Lebanon
Index
The lack of official statistics makes a demographic analysis of
Lebanese society a difficult task. Because of the precarious and
delicate sectarian arrangement in the body politic, the government
has deliberately avoided conducting a comprehensive update of the
1932 census. Christian communities, primarily the
Maronites (see Glossary),
fear that the numerical preponderance of Muslims would
eventually strip them of their privileges by changing the
foundations of political representation. When the French Mandate
government conducted the 1932 census, it enumerated 861,399
Lebanese, including those living abroad, most of whom were
identified as Christians. The distribution of parliamentary seats
among the confessions was based on the findings of the 1932 census;
the ratio of six Christians to five Muslims, including
Druzes (see Glossary), has been retained.
The government has published only rough estimates of the
population since 1932. The estimate for 1956, for example, showed
that in a total population of 1,411,416, Christians accounted for
54 percent and Muslims, 44 percent. The estimate was seriously
contested because it was based on figures derived from a government
welfare program that tended not to include Muslims in areas distant
from Beirut. After the 1950s, the government statistical bureau
published only total population estimates that were not subdivided
according to sect. Consequently, the census became a highly charged
political issue in Lebanon, because it constituted the ostensible
basis for communal representation
(see The National Pact
, ch. 4).
Conducting a census during the 1970s and 1980s was clearly
impossible because of the war. The United States Department of
State 1983 estimate for the population of Lebanon was 2.6 million.
The figures included Lebanese nationals living abroad and excluded
Palestinian refugees, of whom there were nearly 400,000. A 1986
estimate by the United States Central Intelligence Agency of the
confessional distribution of the population showed 27 percent
Sunnis (see Glossary),
41 percent Shias, 7 percent Druzes, 16
percent Maronites, 5 percent Greek Orthodox, and 3 percent Greek
Catholics. However, these data were, at best, informed estimates
subject to revision.
In the absence of a reliable country-wide population census,
the most useful data on population was a 1984 survey conducted in
the Greater Beirut region by a team of specialists from the
American University of Beirut. An examination of the age
composition of the resident population of Beirut in the 1983-84
period revealed a relatively young population with 41.5 percent
less than twenty years of age. There appeared to be a decline in
fertility over the last decade for the resident population of
Beirut.
The sex distribution of the 1983-84 Beirut resident population
indicated an overall sex ratio of 95.5 males per 100 females. The
extreme deficiency observed for males in the age group twenty
through forty-nine may be the result of two factors: the large
emigration of men in these ages, mostly to Persian Gulf countries,
and a high rate of war-related mortality.
A 1983
World Bank (see Glossary)
study contained some
statistics on the demographic characteristics of Lebanon for the
period 1960 through 1981, the last year for which figures were
available in 1987. Although the reliability of the figures could
not be established, the figures revealed some interesting trends
(see table _, Demographic Data, 1960-81, Appendix A).
During this
period, the crude birth rate declined perceptibly as did the crude
death rate. Surprisingly, life expectancy rose despite the war. The
fertility rate continued to decline during the war, but there was
little change in the age structure of the population. Total
population increased, although at a slower rate than in the prewar
period, and there was a dramatic increase in urban population
because of the continued influx to the cities. The rate of increase
of population density slowed, however, as a result of the war and
the consequent emigration of large numbers of Lebanese.
Although accurate figures of Beirut's population in the mid1980s were lacking, the city's dominant demographic position was
unquestioned. Beirut has featured prominently in Lebanese society
as a port city throughout its history and as the major population
center of the country since at least the beginning of the Mandate
period in 1920. Its role in maritime trade brought prosperity to
its inhabitants. The creation of the state of Israel in 1948
benefited Beirut, which replaced the port of Haifa as a center for
Arab trade with the West. Until the 1950s, Beirut was inhabited
primarily by non-Maronite Christians and Sunni Muslims. In the
1950s a wave of immigrants from all parts of Lebanon and from all
sects sought the lure of economic prosperity and the readily
available government services of Beirut. The civil strife that
began the 1970s has reinforced the sectarian demographic divisions
in the city.
Other major cities in Lebanon include Tripoli, Sidon, Tyre,
Baalbek, and Zahlah. Tripoli, the capital of Ash Shamal Province,
has a majority Sunni population and a Christian minority. Sidon, in
Al Janub Province, also has a Sunni majority, with a sizable
Christian community. Tyre, in Al Janub Province, has a diverse
sectarian composition. Although the majority of its inhabitants are
Shias, the city has always included Christians of various sects.
Baalbek, in Al Biqa Province, has a Shia majority and a Christian
minority. Zahlah, also in Al Biqa Province, has a predominantly
Christian population
(see
fig. 1, Administrative Divisions).
Data as of December 1987
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