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WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
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Laos
Index
In some respects, Thailand can be seen as a greater
threat to
the country's independence than Vietnam because of its
closer
cultural affinity
(Theravada Buddhism--see Glossary), its
easier
access, and its control over the railroad and highway
routes to the
sea. The Mekong River, which both sides have an interest
in making
a "river of true peace and friendship"--as their
respective prime
ministers called for in 1976--also provides a north-south
artery
during the rainy season.
Relations with Thailand have been uneven. An alarming
patrol
boat shooting incident occurred in 1980, but this brief
encounter
was overshadowed by the border disputes and military
clashes of
1984 and 1987 in Xaignabouri Province west of the Mekong.
These
conflicts originated in rival claims to forest resources
based on
maps from the early days of the French protectorate.
The determination in 1988 of Thai prime minister
Chatichai
Choonhaven to open up the Indochina market abruptly turned
a deadly
conflict into a wave of goodwill gestures and business
ventures.
Kaysone paid an official visit to Bangkok in 1989, his
first since
the brief 1979 rapprochement with Prime Minister General
Kriangsak
Chomanand. These gestures were followed by official visits
by
Princess Maha Chakkri in March 1990 and Crown Prince Maha
Wachirolongkon in June 1992. An irony of this process of
reacquaintance was the dropping from the Politburo in 1992
of Army
Chief of Staff General Sisavat Keobounphan, who had dealt
closely
and effectively with the Thai military command in
restoring
neighborly relations but who apparently was considered by
his party
colleagues to have indulged in personal gains. Indeed,
this
corruption of a senior party leader symbolizes the fear
among some
Laotian leaders that Thailand, with its materialism and
business
strength and greed, "want to eat us."
Two political issues slowed rapprochement during the
1980s:
first, the continuing issue of Laotian migrants and
refugees
remaining in temporary camps--whom Thailand had no desire
to accept
as immigrants--and second, Laotian and Hmong resistance
groups who
used the camps as a base. The Hmong constituted half of
the camp
dwellers and were expected to avoid repatriation the
longest, out
of fear of reprisal and hope for national autonomy.
Thailand
announced in July 1992, however, that Laotian refugees who
have not
returned home or found third-country resettlement by 1995
will be
classified as illegal immigrants and face deportation.
In the first few years of rapprochement, Thai
businesspersons
have not threatened to buy up long-term economic
opportunities in
Laos because they seem to seek shorter-term commercial
ventures.
Yet the possibility of heavy interdependence generated by
Thai
investors remains. A Thai business presence in Laos will
probably
depend on the continuing demonstration of Laos's
independence from
Vietnam.
The persistence of a resistance movement since 1975 is
attributable to permissive policies on the part of
Thailand on
behalf of their former Laotian cohorts. With the demise of
the Cold
War, the motivation to harass the LPDR and its Vietnamese
military
partners has dwindled. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs
will
continue to press the Thai military command to live up to
its March
1991 agreement to disarm rebels and discourage Laotian
sabotage
operations. At the same time, Thailand has made clear its
unwillingness to assimilate Hmong refugees.
The threat of a return of Vietnamese troops remains as
a
cautionary note to the Thai military, who prefer to keep
Laos as a
buffer rather than the military line of contact with the
Vietnamese. The Friendship Bridge should open the interior
to more
foreign trucking and commerce and more openly reveal any
foreign
military presence in Laos.
Future Laotian-Thai relations have a clear path visible
toward
mutually beneficial trade and investment, which need not
be
obscured by refugees or economic migrants, by one-sided
economic
dealings of an exploitative kind, or by inflamed border
disputes.
The exodus of tens of thousands of middle-class lowland
Lao and
mountain dwelling Hmong across the Mekong into Thailand
created a
tense border that Thailand preferred to close off to
commerce of
any kind. An improved trade relationship has been achieved
in spite
of past feelings of superiority or victimization, and
growing
interdependence may make the path easier to follow.
Data as of July 1994
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