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WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
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Kyrgyzstan
Index
Kyrgyzstan is bordered by four nations, three of which--Kazakstan,
Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan--are former Soviet republics. China's Xinjiang
Uygur Autonomous Region, where a substantial separatist movement has been
active, also adjoins the republic. Although Kazakstan and Uzbekistan have
recognized their existing borders with Kyrgyzstan, as of 1996 Tajikistan
had not done so. China recognizes the old Soviet Union border but is said
to have objections to twelve specific points of its common border with
Kyrgyzstan. The objections have been referred to a Chinese-CIS border
committee for resolution.
Undoubtedly the most immediate concern is neighboring Uzbekistan, which,
under the leadership of President Islam Karimov, is emerging as the
strongest state in post-Soviet Central Asia. Although Uzbekistan faces
serious economic problems of its own, it has a homogeneous and
well-educated population of more than 20 million, a diversified and
developed economy, and sufficient natural resources to allow the country
to become self-sufficient in energy and a major exporter of gold, cotton,
and natural gas (see The Economy, ch. 5).
Uzbekistan has the best organized and best disciplined security forces
in all of Central Asia, as well as a relatively large and experienced army
and air force. Uzbekistan dominates southern Kyrgyzstan both economically
and politically, based on the large Uzbek population in that region of
Kyrgyzstan and on economic and geographic conditions (see Ethnic Groups,
this ch.). Much of Kyrgyzstan depends entirely on Uzbekistan for natural
gas; on several occasions, Karimov has achieved political ends by shutting
pipelines or by adjusting terms of delivery. In a number of television
appearances broadcast in the Osh and Jalal-Abad provinces of Kyrgyzstan,
Karimov has addressed Akayev with considerable condescension; Akayev, in
turn, has been highly deferential to his much stronger neighbor. Although
Uzbekistan has not shown overt expansionist tendencies, the Kyrgyz
government is acutely aware of the implications of Karimov's assertions
that he is responsible for the well-being of all Uzbeks, regardless of
their nation of residence.
Although it presents no such expansionist threat, Kazakstan is as
important to northern Kyrgyzstan as Uzbekistan is to the south. The
virtual closure of Manas Airport at Bishkek makes Kazakstan's capital,
Almaty, the principal point of entry to Kyrgyzstan. The northwestern city
of Talas receives nearly all of its services through the city of Dzhambyl,
across the border in Kazakstan. Although Kazakstan's president Nursultan
Nazarbayev has cooperated in economic agreements, in May 1993 Kyrgyzstan's
introduction of the som caused Nazarbayev to close his country's border
with Kyrgyzstan to avoid a flood of worthless Kyrgyzstani rubles.
Kyrgyzstan's relations with Tajikistan have been tense. Refugees and
antigovernment fighters in Tajikistan have crossed into Kyrgyzstan several
times, even taking hostages. Kyrgyzstan attempted to assist in brokering
an agreement between contesting Tajikistani forces in October 1992 but
without success. Akayev later joined presidents Karimov and Nazarbayev in
sending a joint intervention force to support Tajikistan's president
Imomali Rahmonov against insurgents, but the Kyrgyzstani parliament
delayed the mission of its small contingent for several months until late
spring 1993. In mid-1995 Kyrgyzstani forces had the responsibility of
sealing a small portion of the Tajikistan border near Panj from
Tajikistani rebel forces.
The greater risk to Kyrgyzstan from Tajikistan is the general
destabilization that the protracted civil war has brought to the region.
In particular, the Khorugh-Osh road, the so-called "highway above the
clouds," has become a major conduit of contraband of all sorts,
including weapons and drugs (see Internal Security, this ch.). A meeting
of the heads of the state security agencies of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan,
Kazakstan, and Uzbekistan, held in Osh in the spring of 1995, also drew
the conclusion that ethnic, social, and economic conditions in Osh were
increasingly similar to those in Tajikistan in the late 1980s, thus
recognizing the contagion of Tajikistan's instability.
Chinese-Kyrgyzstani relations are an area of substantial uncertainty for
the government in Bishkek. China has become Kyrgyzstan's largest non-CIS
trade partner, but China's influence is stronger in the north of
Kyrgyzstan than in the south. This limitation could change if efforts to
join the Karakorum Highway to Osh through Sary-Tash are successful. The
free-trade zone in Naryn has attracted large numbers of Chinese
businesspeople, who have come to dominate most of the republic's import
and export of small goods. Most of this trade is in barter conducted by
ethnic Kyrgyz or Kazaks who are Chinese citizens. The Kyrgyzstani
government has expressed alarm over the numbers of Chinese who are moving
into Naryn and other parts of Kyrgyzstan, but no preventive measures have
been taken.
The Akayev government also must be solicitous of Chinese sensibilities
on questions of nationalism because the Chinese do not want the
independence of the Central Asian states to stimulate dreams of statehood
among their own Turkic Muslim peoples. Although the Kyrgyz in China have
been historically quiescent, China's Uygurs (of whom there is a small
exile community in Kyrgyzstan) have been militant in their desire to
attain independence. This is the major reason that Kyrgyzstan has refused
to permit the formation of an Uygur party (see Political Parties, this
ch.).
In the 1990s, trade with China has grown to such a volume that some
officials in Kyrgyzstan fear that by the late 1990s Kyrgyzstan's economy
will be entirely dominated by China. In some political quarters, the
prospect of Chinese domination has stimulated nostalgia for the days of
Moscow's control.
Data as of March 1996
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