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WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
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Iran
Index
Iraqi force severely damaged the port of Khorramshahr in October 1980
Copyright Lehtikuva/PHOTRI
Iran's population, based on the preliminary results of the
October 1986 census, was slightly more than 48 million, including
approximately 2.6 million refugees from Afghanistan and Iraq. The
population was expected, according to United States Bureau of
Census projections, to increase to nearly 56 million in 1990 and 76
million in the year 2000. In 1986 the 18 to 30-year-old and 31 to
45-year-old male populations stood at about 5.2 and 3.5 million,
respectively. In the absence of reliable information on Iran's war
casualties, the significance of these figures was difficult to
assess. Estimates of war-related deaths ranged between 750,000 and
1 million. Loss of life was especially high among the 18- to
30-year-old male population; a generation of young and potentially
productive citizens had been cut by 15 to 20 percent, and the
survivors had been physically and mentally scarred by the war.
Casualties also affected Iran's attempts at industrial
recovery. The campaign to resuscitate steel, petrochemical, and
other plants faced critical manpower shortages, raising criticisms
from the more conservative elements in the regime. The manpower
shortages were exacerbated by the 1982 military campaigns that had
mobilized up to 1 million volunteers on more than one occasion.
Coupled with the deteriorating economic situation, the high
human cost of the abortive Iranian thrusts into Iraq in 1981 to
1983 generated war-weariness and discontent even among the regime's
staunchest supporters, the urban and lower classes. The number of
recruits dropped because of disenchantment stemming from political
divisions, which sometimes produced conflicts that turned violent
in the streets of major cities. The Khomeini regime, relying on the
total devotion of the Pasdaran and the Basij, appealed to national
and religious feelings to rekindle morale. In a series of rulings
issued in the autumn of 1982, Khomeini declared that parental
permission was unnecessary for those going to the front, that
volunteering for military duty was a religious obligation, and that
serving in the armed forces took priority over all other forms of
work or study. The government mounted a simultaneous effort to
quell demonstrations by political groups like the Mojahedin and the
Tudeh
(see Internal Security
, this ch.). The demise of left-wing
guerrilla organizations, however, did not reduce opposition to the
war. New elements calling for a settlement of the conflict with
Iraq emerged. Because of this opposition, former Prime Minister
Bazargan tried to negotiate an end to the war, realizing that Iran
might fall victim to its own political rigidity. For the
revolutionary regime, however, the war remained a legitimizing
tool, despite its high cost.
Data as of December 1987
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